Libya crisis forces operators to move out....What next for them???.......Is it sell off.

Immediate impact of Libyan crisis

The ongoing Libyan civil war and Western military intervention is set to take about 860,000 barrels per day of production, over a period of 90 days, out of the oil market this year.

An unresolved crisis may also lead to long-term exits by international oil companies from the North African country, putting Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corporation’s ambitious production growth goals under pressure.

Long term impact of Libyan crisis

Almost all international oil companies operating in Libya have evacuated their staff and cannot be certain when normal operations will resume. There are a number of uncertain factors affecting its estimates of the impact of the crisis on Libyan output, including how long the current abnormal situation lasts, which will determine how rapidly production can be returned to normal levels.

Operations at some projects are at “hot standby” as Italian player Eni has indicated, ready for a quick restart. Other projects will require major work before a return to normalcy.

More fields have been shut in as the unrest continues to spiral. We think it will take more time to resume production than previously estimated (30 days). Hence, we recommend raising the estimated production cut by another 60 days for the fields identified earlier, as well as for the newly impacted fields. The rate at which output recovers after the current crisis is over will to a great extent depend on which side wins.

What is next for IOC’s

With Gaddafi’s forces now apparently halted, Eni, BP, Wintershall, OMV, the big American players such as Hess, Marathon and ConocoPhillips, and a long list of other players and hopefuls, not least supermajor Shell at its gas exploration site, all have to consider two relatively simple options.

The worst option for the oil firms is that Gaddafi succeeds in dragging out the confrontation or wins the day. In these circumstances, it has become clear that neither Eni nor any of the others will really return to Libya while Gaddafi remains in power. Admittedly, Eni has an unusual position and may be granted a special status to continue producing gas for the local Libyan market.

Nearly all the companies with assets in Libya will now find that they are rooting for an early end to Gaddafi’s regime as the only clear way for their return. The Libyan leader is threatening to bring everything else – possibly including some vulnerable oil facilities - down with him if he has to leave the scene after 42 years in power, but it may be too late for him to follow through on the bluster.

 Acquisitions and divestitures in Libya - 2006 to 2011

Source: Derrick Petroleum M&A Database - www.derrickpetroleum.com